The Diffusion Deficit: Why Transformative Tech Takes So Long
This article explores the often-unexpectedly slow diffusion of transformative technologies, using the tractor as a prime example. It argues that technological success depends not only on inherent superiority but also on compatibility with existing social, economic, and industrial systems. The article examines cases like the telephone, electric motor, and IT, highlighting the need for complementary innovations, skills training, and industrial reorganization to unlock a technology's full potential. The current AI field faces similar challenges, with excessive focus on AGI overshadowing product development and practical application. Ultimately, technological success hinges on understanding and strategizing for diffusion—this is where the true 'technological dividend' lies.
Read more